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Independent poll: Bawumia projected to win NPP flagbearer race by 78.37%

A new confidential independent poll of delegates of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP’s) presidential primaries coming up on Saturday, 4 November 2023, details of which have been seen by Asaase News, puts the Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, in a commanding lead of 78.37%.

The Vice President’s nearest rival, Kennedy Agyepong, the NPP Assin Central constituency law maker, lags behind Dr Bawumia with 20.86% of the votes. The third candidate, Dr Owusu Akoto Afriyie is projected to secure 0.41% and Francis Addai Nimoh, 0.36%.

Sampling
The independent poll which was completed on Saturday 7 October 2023, had a sample size of 23,103 respondents. Out of that, Dr Bawumia had 18,106 (78.37%) respondents choosing him as their preferred candidate. 4,819 (20.86) respondents chose Kennedy Agyapong, 94 (0.41%) selected Dr Owusu Akoto Afriyie and 84 (0.36%) of the respondents opted for Francis Addai Nimoh.

The respondents were chosen from all sixteen (16) regions of the country. The findings of the poll points to the fact that the Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia will win majority votes in all the 16 regions in the country.

Previous polls
A similar poll from the same source released on 24 August ahead of the 26 August special electoral college elections of the NPP predicted that the Vice President, Dr Mahumudu Bawumia, was in a commanding lead of 71.7%. At the end of the poll, Dr Bawumia polled a total of 629 voted, representing 68.15% of the total valid votes cast.

The results of the 24 August independent poll compared to the outcome of the special electoral college reflected the plus or minus (+-) 3% margin of error put forward by the research group that conducted the poll. It stand to reason that their latest poll on the upcoming NPP presidential primaries is worth considering.

Regional breakdown
The new independent poll ahead of the presidential primaries indicate that in Ahafo Region, out of a sample size of 541, Dr Bawumia polled 426, Mr Agyapong, 110, Dr Akoto, 4 and Addai Nimoh 1. In the Ashanti Region, out of a sample size of 3,547, Dr Bawumia secured 3,008, Mr Agyapong, 526, Dr Akoto, 10 and Addai Nimoh 3.

In Bono Region, the sample size was 1,077. Dr Bawumia had 832 respondents selecting him. Mr Agyapong had 238, Dr Akoto, 7 and Addai Nimoh 0. In the Bono East Region, the sample size was 948, 772 chose Dr Bawumia, 175 selected Kennedy Agyapong, 1 for Dr Akoto and 0 for Addai Nimoh.

Central Region and Eastern Regions had a sample size of 2,085 and 2,571 respectively. Dr Bawumia secured 1,234 and 2,092 in the two regions respectively. Mr Agyapong also had 842 in the Central Region and 458 in the Eastern Region. Dr Akoto has 6 and 13 and Addai Nimoh secured 3 and 8 respondents voting in his favour.

With a sample size of 3,859, Dr Bawumia had 2,623 respondents in the Greater Accra Region selecting him as the preferred candidate. Mr Agyapong had 1,186, Dr Akoto, 20, and Addai Nimoh 30. North East Region 434 selected Dr Bawumia out of a sample size of 437. The remaining 3 chose Mr Agyapong with the last two candidates securing no vote.

The results of the independent polls in the remaining regions are as follows; Northern Region, sample size 1,409, Dr Bawumia, 1,315, Mr Agyapong, 84, Dr Akoto 2, Addai Nimoh 8. Oti Region, sample size 599, Dr Bawumia, 519, Mr Agyapong, 75, Dr Akoto 3, Addai Nimoh 2.

Savannah sample size 569, Dr Bawumia, 471, Mr Agyapong, 94, Dr Akoto 2, Addai Nimoh 2. Upper East Region sample size 1,119, Dr Bawumia, 939, Mr Agyapong, 165, Dr Akoto 12, Addai Nimoh 3. Upper West Region, sample size 939, Dr Bawumia, 794, Mr Agyapong, 143, Dr Akoto 2, Addai Nimoh 0.

Volta Region, sample size 1,533, Dr Bawumia, 1,170, Mr Agyapong, 353, Dr Akoto 8, Addai Nimoh 2. Western Region, sample size 1,721, Dr Bawumia, 1,330, Mr Agyapong, 359, Dr Akoto 7, Addai Nimoh 25 and Western North Region, sample size 696, Dr Bawumia, 586, Mr Agyapong, 109, Dr Akoto 0, Addai Nimoh 1.

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