The Power Planning Technical Committee (PPTC), the body responsible for the drafting of the 2022 Electricity Supply Plan, has stated that contrary to the claims by NDC MP John Jinapor that “dumsor” is imminent, there is no such risk.
The PPTC, set up by the energy minister to, among others, develop planning reports for Ghana’s power system, made this point in a statement and signed by its chairman, Ing Frank Otchere, in reaction to an earlier claim by Jinapor, the ranking member of Parliament on mines and energy on a number of issues pertaining to the power sector.
Jinapor is on record to have said that “the existing generation capacities will not be adequate to serve the projected demand with 18% reserve margins for any of the planning years”, on which basis he predicted the imminent return of power outages.
However, the committee explained that, according to the 2022 Electricity Plan (ESP), the country had total installed generation capacity of 5,265.1MW, with dependable capacity standing at 4,706. With a projected annual peak demand going up to 4,793MW in 2026, the committee stated that it is obvious that both the installed capacity and dependable capacity are in excess of peak demand, and therefore there cannot be imminent “dumsor” as was portrayed.
Explaining further, the committee said that “dumsor” only occurs when the actual demand is higher than what the system is able to generate, and clarifies that the additional demand recommended in its report is only required to provide as extra capacity to serve as reserve.
Future generation needs
The committee further clarified that in recommending further generation capacity between 2023 and 2027 (a total of 822 MW), this only refers to a sensitivity analysis on capacity requirement in the event that the Bui Hydro Plant is able to run only on two (2) units instead of three (3) during the peak period. “This situation is rare, and was analysed only as a sensitivity scenario in the unlikely event of such a situation,” the statement said.